1.
Forecasting a spell: Setting the future in motion (with no
2.
Corporations and investors are tasked with the tremendous burden of forecasting their businesses and investments twenty or thirty years down the road
3.
…Revenues projected years in advance…subject to volatile (market) conditions likely to invalidate forecasting
4.
Aerographer: officer involved in weather forecasting
5.
Despite a morning that warranted a good bit of television in the room, Ian stimulated a motivating date with friends, buzzed on his brew, forecasting on a solid start to experience – Janice obliged
6.
remember the three laws of forecasting: (1) forecasting is difficult; (2) methodology is over-rated;
7.
procedures: one of the Laws of Forecasting tell us that Methodology is Over-rated
8.
Both predicting and forecasting have evolved to the state where they
9.
The Laws of Forecasting set a context for the methods of foretelling
10.
Fundamental and technical analyses are used for forecasting the future direction of the currency
11.
Two types of analysis are used for the market movements forecasting: fundamental, and technical
12.
early thirteenth centuries gives ratios, which play important role in the forecasting of market
13.
When you get to the serious forecasting stage you should already be in close
14.
While forecasting the cost and time delays of using attorneys, I’ll bet the parties could figure out a better settlement, and have way more to split, each
15.
forecasting, prediction, classification, etc
16.
This book is aimed to help you kick-start with analytics including chapters on data visualization, code examples on web analytics and social media analytics, clustering, regression models, text mining, data mining models and forecasting
17.
executive, the mathematical situation is akin to forecasting the path of a hurricane and
18.
task, forecasting in this manner is open to numerous errors, and some analysts simply
19.
forecasting; the index ranges between two numbers depending on location, but once it
20.
dynamic, we are not forecasting per se
21.
with forecasting earnings and the need for company guidance is attributable to this lack of
22.
performance are simply inadequate as forecasting tools
23.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF FORECASTING
24.
The chain of logic behind forecasting begins with the fact that all companies need a
25.
Students of finance should be especially familiar with forecasting techniques with
26.
them with 5 modules of which forecasting was one
27.
While this is a worthy exercise, the real benefits lie in forecasting the
28.
Ah, 2004! The election that had virtually buried the science of psephology, or poll forecasting
29.
seen, forecasting the doom of the Internet
30.
forecasting what day we would leave this land of the
31.
Perhaps my own mind was forecasting the ending
32.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology is forecasting a climb of 8 degrees in 2100; a global warming sufficient to kill life on earth
33.
This form of prophecy thereby consists of forecasting and describing
34.
This flowing structure lends itself to the forecasting of future activity in a manner
35.
similar to the forecasting of weather patterns
36.
forecasting one week ahead with the trendline
37.
So we are safe in forecasting the conclusion that the most Campbell has accomplished is the weaving of another web over the mists surrounding the simplicity of words
38.
forecasting the weather, predicting the forex market is sometimes a crapshoot,
39.
” Nor was I forecasting that society would be overrun by “stream-entrants” and “non-returners” of the Joseph Goldstein variety
40.
Drew applied his theory with generally good forecasting results until the end of the 1960s
41.
A FORECASTING GIANT OF THE PAST
42.
Angas himself developed an extraordinary forecasting record during the 1920-1940 period, when he was invariably right about stock price movements in England and the United States and their associated economic fluctuations
43.
In his later years his forecasting record became more erratic
44.
as forecasting tool, 45
45.
He is managing—not forecasting
46.
As technical analysts use past market data to make their prediction of future directional movement, options traders use the historical price behavior as a component of forecasting future market action
47.
The professional traders are estimating what volatility will be or forecasting volatility
48.
Assuming that we will keep the position “delta neutral,” thereby taking away the price forecasting element, we may measure the profitability of the trade by examining the actual volatility for the duration of the trade
49.
These and other technical tools apply in volatility forecasting
50.
This interpretation applies directly to forecasting volatility
51.
To better understand the difference between the various types of volatilities, consider the following analogy to weather and weather forecasting
52.
Understandably, a ‘reversed head and shoulders’ is the same thing upside down, forecasting a rise
53.
Trading in the market, forecasting next year’s results for various businesses, selecting the best media for long-term expansion—all these have a useful place in Wall Street
54.
FORECASTING SECURITY PRICES is not properly a part of security analysis
55.
We shall confine ourselves to considering the broader lines of reasoning that are involved in the major premises of price forecasting
56.
The Second Type of Mechanical Forecasting
57.
Before considering the significance of this injection of the judgment factor, let us pass on to the other type of mechanical forecasting, which is based upon factors outside of the market itself
58.
This simple method is representative of all mechanical forecasting systems, in that (1) it sounds vaguely plausible on the basis of a priori reasoning and (2) it relies for its convincingness on the fact that it has “worked” for a number of years past
59.
Many of the forecasting services are therefore driven to a sort of pseudo-science, in which they take it for granted that certain time lags or certain coincidences that happened to occur several times in the past (or have been worked out laboriously by a process of trial and error), can be counted upon to occur in much the same way in the future
60.
, entirely dependable) forecasting in the economic field is a logical impossibility
61.
3 These indices may also be plotted on charts, in which case the forecasting takes on the aspect of chart reading
62.
Both companies have since become more circumspect about forecasting the future
63.
We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator’s financial results
64.
We lack space here to discuss in detail the pros and cons of market forecasting
65.
For who will buy when the general public, at a given signal, rushes to sell out at a profit? If you, the reader, expect to get rich over the years by following some system or leadership in market forecasting, you must be expecting to try to do what countless others are aiming at, and to be able to do it better than your numerous competitors in the market
66.
It demonstrates an inherent characteristic of forecasting and trading formulas in the fields of business and finance
67.
Aside from forecasting the movements of the general market, much effort and ability are directed on Wall Street toward selecting stocks or industrial groups that in matter of price will “do better” than the rest over a fairly short period in the future
68.
Many of these services confine themselves exclusively, or nearly so, to forecasting market movements by various “technical” methods
69.
Wall Street’s view of the longer future is notoriously fallible, and this necessarily applies to that important part of its investigations which is directed toward the forecasting of the course of profits in various industries
70.
bankruptcy; and aggressive investors; of brokerage houses; case histories about; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and investment funds; and market fluctuations; and price; of railroads; and security analysis
71.
bear markets; and aggressive investors; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and market fluctuations; silver lining to
72.
bonds: and advice; and aggressive investors; and asset allocation; and bargains; calls on; and characteristics of intelligent investors; common stocks compared with; and convertible issues and warrants; coupons for; “coverage” for; defaults on; and defensive investors; discount; distressed; and diversification; earnings on; and Graham’s business principles; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; interest on; and investment funds; and investments vs
73.
bull markets; and bargains; characteristics of; and convertible issues and warrants; and dealings with brokerage houses; death/end of; history and forecasting of; length of; and market fluctuations; and new offerings; and portfolio policy for aggressive investors
74.
cash/“cash equivalents”: and aggressive investors; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and security analysis
75.
common stock: and advice; for aggressive investors; and asset allocation; bonds compared with; characteristics of; for defensive investors; dividends on; earnings on; expected growth (1963 and 1969) of; general long-term prospects for; general observations on; as growth stock; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; investment merits of; investment rules for; and investments vs
76.
inflation; accuracy of rate of; as dead; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and money illusion; nominal and real; and price; protection against; and Raskob’s prescription; and returns/yield; and risk; and taxes; and value
77.
interest; and aggressive investors; and bargains; compound; and Cramer’s recommendations; and defensive investors; and expectations for investors; fixed; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; and margin of safety; and security analysis; and taxes
78.
yield: and aggressive investors; and convertible issues and warrants; and defensive investors; fluctuations in; and history and forecasting of stock market; and inflation; and speculation
79.
Supercomputer systems, for example, can combine the capabilities of hundreds of processors to perform complex tasks that require enormous numbers of computations, such as weather forecasting
80.
To emphasize the fact that patterns are prone to change and failure and we should never rely on classical charting as a precise forecasting tool, this chapter will focus on set-ups that did not work
81.
Forecasting inflation is the easy part
82.
As a firm, we were probably unique in that since we were so intimately tied to the stock market, we used it as a forecasting tool for our own business
83.
Four Things to Consider When Forecasting Implied Volatility
84.
OPMIs, on the other hand, are not in a position to alter the way a corporation’s resources are used, and understandably are thus less likely to use this resource conversion approach in forecasting future earnings
85.
GARP analysis focuses strictly on forecasting future flows, whether such flows are revenues, earnings, or cash
86.
We identify limitations of GARP, which stem from its underlying assumptions including: the view that businesses are pure going concerns, heavy weight is given to the past earnings record when forecasting future earnings growth, industry identification is important to GARP, acceptance of the generally accepted consensus of growth potentials rather than reliance on independent appraisals of growth potentials, a tendency towards buying what is popular when it is most popular
87.
In GADCP we give no primacy to flows in forecasting future growth but rather consider the quantity and quality of resources in a business as well as managements’ appraisals as investors and financiers, and potential resource conversion opportunities while being extremely price conscious
88.
Items that are perceived to be critical are inside information about corporate events that they believe will have market impact; technical systems that they believe will assist in forecasting general market trends and individual stock price movements; and trading information that can either be reacted to or used
89.
We agree with the modern capital theorists that it is a losing exercise for almost all outside investors to try to beat the market by forecasting price movements over any particular length of time, say within the next year
90.
Instead of just forecasting earnings, in FF, prognostications are made about:
91.
Growth analysis focuses strictly on forecasting future flows, whether such flows are revenues, earnings, or cash
92.
GAAP are probably not very helpful for investors focused strictly on forecasting future growth trends in income or cash flow without looking to the leavening provided by non–income account GAAP disclosures
93.
3 We discuss the pitfalls of this approach to forecasting earnings in Chapter 6 on net asset value
94.
The company is now forecasting total production in 2009 to be between 800 MWp and 1 GWp, lower than the previous forecast
95.
In January 2009, the company increased its outlook for 2009 by forecasting revenue for the year to be between $345 and $350 million; this would be approximately an increase of 40 percent from the 2008 number
96.
A recent help wanted ad touted openings with a sportsbook; they were looking for statisticians who could help them develop real-time software for forecasting the outcomes of cricket matches
97.
By the 1970s NASA (the National Aeronautical and Space Agency) was launching Landsats that could transmit detailed pictures of the earth, which could then be used for anything from weather forecasting to crop management
98.
As option traders have come to appreciate the importance of volatility as an input into a pricing model, volatility forecasting models have been developed in an attempt to more accurately predict future realized volatility
